Federal sequestration will officially take effect.
Aviation is poised to take some lumps and bruising as a result. In an industry
with an impossibly difficult risk/margin ratio, this federal dilly-dallying
could possibly set the aviation industry further behind an already distant
“eight ball”. One cannot help but wonder, What? Why? How?
Sequestration
was originally designed as a stop-loss measure back in 2011 when Congress
realized that the US needed to raise the federal debt limit, or go over the
infamous “fiscal cliff”. The approval to increase the federal debt limit was
made under the condition that budget cuts would be agreed to. However, no exact
cuts were approved just the sweeping plan to require all government programs to
cut roughly 11% of current operating budgets. Congress, at the time, agreed
that this sweeping plan was so heinous and damaging that more effective and
intelligent cuts would be designed and implemented. Well, these modifications
were never realized and sequestration has become reality (Choksi, 2013) . Whether this is the
result of a bogged-down and sludge filled federal government engine or the lack
of ingenuity amongst federal department heads or a combination of the two, the
system has failed again. The ramifications of sequestration will not necessarily
be too damning for many industries, but for aviation, sequestration could
severely stunt growth and business performance overall.
The
most obvious place to look to for an understanding of how sequestration will
effect aviation is to look to the FAA. In a statement issued in October, FAA
Chief Michael Huerta identified some of the more pressing program problems that
could result from sequestration, “..these cuts would impact air traffic control
services, NextGen implementation, and aircraft certification…” (National
Business Aviation Association, 2013) . NextGen air traffic
systems are already nearly a decade behind original implementation goals. This
proposed system would greatly improve the efficiency of the aviation industry
as a whole, and save operators millions of needed dollars. Secondary air
traffic control towers will likely become unmanned at non-peak hours, something
that the National Business Aviation Association is very leery of. At the 38th
annual FAA Forecast & Policy Summit held March 6 in Washington D.C., NBAA
COO Steve Brown voiced his concerns saying, “We’re very concerned about
sequestration, and the effect it will have on economic growth.” He went on to say
that it is his intent to offer alternatives to tower closings at future
meetings (National Business Aviation
Association, 2013) .
The idea that secondary tower closings could negatively affect business
aviation is not unfounded. Business aviation is unique in that many different
types/sizes of aircraft are used. Different types of aircraft need different
conditions for a safe landing. If an airfield tower is unmanned, conflicts
between smaller aircraft and faster jet aircraft could prove to be
catastrophic. The results of increased incidents is a perception of a lack of
safety, and let’s be honest with ourselves here, unmanned towers is dangerous.
The effects on commercial aviation, aside from the NextGen impacts, will likely
be limited to some delay as the result of slower security screening and some
possible congestion problems as the result of fewer controllers being on staff (Patterson,
2012) .
These delays could result in some ticket price increases as well. There are
some aviation insiders that are not even slightly upset about sequestration.
The
people in aviation who stand to benefit from sequestration are the minority,
but they exist. In an article published last week by Government Executive magazine,
author Eric Katz was able to identify a few beneficiaries of the sequestration
in aviation. First mentioned was the airport concessions industry, these companies
stand to see an increase in sales as the result of the masses of people who are
delayed and trapped inside the airport terminal. Not exactly a wonderful
business story, though this could lead to the emergence of new airport terminal
amenities like “pay’n lay” sleep cots. Katz also mentions that currently
overworked government employees will now be afforded a much-needed day off in
many cases (Katz, 2013) . Anyone who knows an
FAA employee or two knows that he/she could work 24/7 and still be behind.
Although, does this not really just create an even worse backlog for the
bewildered government employee?
The
reality of sequestration for aviation appears to be wholly negative. Reduced
operating efficiency, delayed infrastructure updates, and potentially unsafe airspace
is a recipe for trouble. What aviation professionals have to ask themselves is,
“How do we let this happen?” If there was anything that could have been done to
prevent these cuts, or to prepare planned cuts ahead of time, it should have
been done. This was a risk, which was predictable and mollifiable. At least if
there had been some planning, we could have been prepared for, and accordingly limited,
the effects of sequestration. It seems that whenever a program fails to meet
expectations, we are quick to let everyone else know about how Congress or
Lawmakers let us down. Perhaps, what we need to do is look at what our role in
the failure was. I hope that we will be able to ramp-up the professionalism and
find ways to make the automatic cutbacks have minimal effect on our industry.
-Jay Dankoff
Works Cited
Choksi, N. (2013, February 28). What is
Sequestration and What Does It Mean for Me? Retrieved from
nationaljournal.com:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/what-is-sequestration-and-what-does-it-mean-for-me-20130226
Katz, E. (2013, March 14). Not Everyone Hates Sequestration.
Retrieved from govexec.com:
http://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/pay-benefits-watch/2013/03/not-everyone-hates-sequestration/61858/
National Business Aviation Association. (2013, March 11). Business
Aviation Works to Mitigat Sequester's Impact. Retrieved from nbaa.org:
http://www.nbaa.org/ops/20130311-business-aviation-works-to-mitigate-sequesters-impact.php
Patterson, T. (2012, November 27). Will Potential FAA Cuts Hurt
Fliers? Retrieved from cnn.com: http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/travel/faa-budget-cuts
The people who benefit from this sequester are barely tied to aviation in my opinion. Yes, they sit at the airport and want layover passengers to eat their food, but is this the FAA's intent of the sequester? I certainly hope not. This is what I get from the sequester (and I think you state it in other words in your blog), because we spent too much money on stuff with little importance, we have to sacrifice safety and furlough you. By sacrifice safety, I mean by reducing control towers. I know a Citation Mustang pilot who is going to be furious if Ann Arbor tower closes. He said it will be very difficult and painful sequencing himself between a C152 and PA28.
ReplyDeleteSteve, I agree, I thought maybe Mr. Katz, who wrote the article, was being sarcastic at first because vendors are not in the aviation industry mainstream. It is difficult to find any winners here at all. Maybe when I am part of the aviation machine on a managerial level I can help get some issues like this addressed before they become scary and dangerous problems. When you're an industry leading pilot, I hope you will help get involved in improving the industry approach to some of these issues too.
Delete'An impossibly difficult risk/margin ratio' is exactly what the aviation industry deals with, and cutting funds further is a scary thought. I agree with you that NextGen is something that should be pushed to the forefront and continued to be worked on, instead of set on the back burner and further delayed. Its benefits will be incredible to the industry and is, what I believe, exactly what we need to jump start aviation to get it back to where we were pre 9/11. I also agree with you that sequestration is only going to be a nightmare for the aviation industry as a whole and hope that it will not have as harsh of an effect as what it sounds like.
ReplyDeleteHopefully 'nightmare' is not the most accurate descriptor in the end, but things do not look great right now. NextGen will be critical to the future success of aviation and any further setbacks aught to be avoided at all costs. Fortunately, we do have some terrific minds in aviation and I am confident this will be a river that we can ford.
DeleteJay, I thought your write-up was awesome. The sequestration is most certainly not helping the aviation community in any way. I know that there are some things that can be cut back on spending-wise, but the things that are on the chopping block are not going to help anyone, only hurt and potentially kill.
ReplyDelete